When and from whom will there be self-driving cars?

Another day, another progress report on self-driving cars. But when – and from whom – will we get the first totally autonomous vehicle?

The self-driving car race is bananas. Not only is it hard to keep track of all the press releases from major players (Google, Uber, Ford), there are also at least 263 companies who are in some way tangentially related to or invested in the field. Seriously, check out this map from Comet Labs.

Still, some companies are better / closer / louder than others and those are the ones we talk about. To make sense of the mess, Navigant Research released a “leaderboard” report. Their logic, according to Wired, goes like this:

“The technology is great, but unless you can build tens of thousands of cars and get people in those cars, it’s not really all that useful,” says Navigant’s Sam Abuelsamid, who wrote the report with David Alexander and Lisa Jerram.

The report selected the 18 biggest companies pursuing fully driverless cars, and ranked them based on nine criteria, including tech, go-to-market strategy, production prowess, staying power, and sales, marketing, and distribution.

With this and an array of other updates in mind, here’s how soon you’re likely to see self-driving cars from the top contenders.

Waymo / Google

Let’s get the technicalities out of the way first: Waymo is the self-driving car company that is a subsidiary of Alphabet, Google’s parent company. But you probably just know Waymo as the Google car.

On May 9, 2017, Waymo announced it passed three million miles of autonomous driving on public roads. Notably, this means their pace is improving and, since self-driving cars rely on data to improve algorithms, sheer miles is necessary education for robot cars. The latest tests also indicate a lower level of disengagements i.e. fewer instances during which the driver has to take control. In California, where such reporting is public, Waymo cars drove more than 600,000 miles in 2016 and experienced only 124 takeovers, according to Recode.

Where does it rank? 6th. Navigant knocked Waymo for their ability to bring a self-driving car to market. Waymo technology tops the rankings, but the absence of any major deal for production, sales or distribution means they fall short of actual car companies.

When can you ride? Now, if you live in Arizona. In April, Waymo launched its first “public self-driving pilot” opening up applications for riders. It functions like a ride share and you won’t be in the driver’s seat, but it’s a start. As for major distribution – keep an eye out for that car deal.

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